Terror Trends Bulletin

By now all of our readers are aware of the fact that Navy SEALs killed Osama Bin Laden over the weekend in a daring raid in Pakistan.

Rather than rehash what is already being reported, TTB will establish an ongoing thread on this monumental event, with links to news articles and analysis from around the world:

Philip Klein at the Washington Examiner points out the years of work, hunting, training and rehearsals that went into accomplishing the mission of taking out Bin Laden. It is also important to point out that if not for the detention center at Guantanomo Bay, Cuba and enhanced interrogation techniques, both of which President Obama has opposed, we’d have never gotten close to finding Bin Laden:

Some time after Sept. 11, detainees held by the U.S. told interrogators about a man believed to work as a courier for bin Laden, senior administration officials said. The man was described by detainees as a protégé of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and “one of the few Al Qaeda couriers trusted by bin laden.”

Two years ago, intelligence officials began to identify areas of Pakistan where the courier and his brother operated, and the great security precautions the two men took aroused U.S. suspicions. 

While the two brothers, the couriers, had no known source of income, the compound was built in 2005 and valued at $1 million.

After exploring every angle for months, they concluded that all signs pointed to this being bin Laden’s residence.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/2011/05/raid-got-bin-laden-was-culmination-years-work-sr-admin-official-s?utm_source=feedburner+BeltwayConfidential&utm_medium=feed+Beltway+Confidential&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BeltwayConfidential+%28Beltway+Confidential%29feed&utm_content=feed&utm_term=feed

Here are some articles with brief introductions to SEAL Team 6, also known as DEVGROUP, the unit that carried out the mission that killed Bin Laden:

http://nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/the-secret-team-that-killed-bin-laden-20110502

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-team-that-killed-bin-laden-seal-team-6-2011-5

From the same source, here is a Timeline for the operation to kill Bin Laden:

http://www.businessinsider.com/timeline-of-bin-laden-discovery-2011-5

Here is an article with some thoughts on how Al Qaeda may retaliate against the US for killing Bin Laden. It lists possible categories of targets. We think some of the targets are certainly likely, but that this list may not go far enough, given what we know of Al Qaeda’s prior plans. There is reason to be worried about shopping malls for instance. Security breaches at chemical and bio facilities seem remote, but attacks on petrochemical refineries and similar facilities would certainly be a concern. The article also assumes that airports and airliners are off the target list, though Al Qaeda’s history suggests they will keep trying in this sector, especially after the successful attack in an airport terminal in Moscow not long ago. We have airliners bottled up tight, but there is no security to speak of in airport terminals, where large numbers of passengers have to stand in line and are vulnerable. Then there are sporting events and music concerts. Jihadists attacked a group in Africa watching the World Cup on TV last year. Not a great article, but not a total waste of time either…

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-will-al-qaeda-militants-get-their-revenge-2011-5

Here is a similar article from ABC News, including a report that a US Marine NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) Warfare unit has been urgently recalled from Japan. This indicates that there is at least some concern that Al Qaeda or its allies could have a WMD capability of some sort…

http://abcnews.go.com/US/osama-bin-laden-triggers-security-alert-recall-marine/story?id=13505844

The US Department of Homeland Security has issued an advisory about potential retaliation, though it includes scant few details:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/05/02/general-us-bin-laden-warnings_8444923.html

One of the most promising aspects of the Bin Laden raid is the potential treasure trove of intelligence captured. No doubt, Al Qaeda operatives and supporters around the globe are holding their breath and scrambling because they can’t be certain if the next knock on the door, or the next helicopter that passes by, could be some of America’s finest come to bring down death and destruction on them…

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20058885-503543.html

CBS News has also published a story on one intriguing aspect of this event, namely that waterboarding at Gitmo produced the initial intelligence that made it possible to track down Bin Laden. It is entirely possible–in fact LIKELY–that had Khalid Sheikh Mohammed not been waterboarded, we’d still be guessing where Bin Laden is today. And had he, and other Al Qaeda terrorists, not been classified as enemy combatants and housed in detention at Gitmo, they would never have undergone the waterboarding in the first place. It is worth noting that President Obama is now taking credit for an operation that could never have occurred had he had his way with regard to Gitmo and “enhanced interrogation” techniques…techniques which we no longer employ by the way…

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20058921-503544.html?tag=cbsnewsMainColumnArea

Another article that credits “enhanced interrogation techniques” for uncovering the intelligence that enabled US forces to find and kill Bin Laden–Obama has ended the use of those techniques…

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=13512344

Now we have an article from The Telegraph in Great Britain that alerts us to the reality that Al Qaeda will not be stopped by Bin Laden’s death. The organization has been franchising itself globally for some time. It even suggests that Bin Laden was never fully in control of the global Jihadist movement, something that TTB definitely agrees with:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8488662/Al-Qaeda-The-next-generation.html

In fact, Al Qaeda has affiliates around the world now and tomorrow’s Al Qaeda leaders may comes from several affiliated terrorist organizations:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/following_bin_ladens_death_al_qaeda_affiliates_in_africa_middle_east_poised_to_produce_new_leaders/2011/05/02/AFaJIwYF_story.html

The next two articles are sad reminders of the tens of thousands of lives Osama Bin Laden’s evil touched through violent Jihad. Back in August of 1998, hundreds of people were killed in East Africa in what was, up to that point, Al Qaeda’s bloodiest attack. Then in 2002, Al Qaeda struck in Bali, Indonesia, killing hundreds of mostly Australian tourists…

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/tears-kenyas-1998-us-embassy-bombing-somalias-al-114638162.html

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/relief-for-bali-bombing-victims-following-osama-bin-ladens-death/story-e6frf7jo-1226048732274

We find the whole emphasis on handling the monster Bin Laden’s remains according to “Islamic tradition” to be troubling as hell. It was almost as if we were showing respect for a mass murderer. Had he been any religion other than Islam there would have been no thought or mention of the religious aspects of how his remains were to be treated. The SEALs do the heavy lifting while the geeks continue to insist that we chase our tails.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/02/bin-laden-given-religious-funeral-prior-sea-burial/

National Journal has aerial photos of Bin Laden’s hideout in Pakistan. Hard to believe the Pakistani military didn’t know he was there…

http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/pictures-u-s-photos-of-the-bin-laden-compound-20110502#photo_0

It’s almost impossible to believe that the Pakistani military didn’t know where Bin Laden was. The available evidence suggests that they were harboring him…

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_PAKISTAN_BIN_LADEN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-05-02-18-25-32

Now that Bin Laden is dead, his sympathizers and allies are making threats. In Great Britain, a guy who really needs to be in prison, Anjem Choudary, has predicted another “7/7” attack as a result of Bin Laden’s death…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8487822/Osama-bin-Laden-dead-followers-warn-of-another-77.html

As a result of veiled and overt threats, we are seeing examples of increased security and warnings from terrorism experts.

There are very visible signs of increased security in New York and Washington, the two targets of the September 11th attacks:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-02/security-heightened-in-new-york-washington-following-killing-of-bin-laden.html

Logan Airport in Boston was one of the airports transited by the September 11th hijackers a decade ago. Today, that airport has instituted tighter security precautions:

http://www.boston.com/yourtown/news/east_boston/2011/05/at_logan_airport_and_around_bo_1.html

There is understandably widespread euphoria across America about Bin Laden’s demise, unfortunately, the Jihadist’s death may not make us any safer. This analysis comes from Steve Emerson’s Investigative Project on Terrorism:

That threat could come from “lone wolf” terrorists as much as from al-Qaida followers. In recent years, bin Laden has been viewed more as an iconic figure for al-Qaida rather than the controlling hand he enjoyed before the 9/11 attacks. The group has split into smaller, autonomous cells and networks, and its ubiquitous Internet presence reaches

In February, U.S. intelligence officials identified Yemen-based American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki as a bigger threat than bin Laden. Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan and attempted Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad are among those Awlaki communicated with or inspired. During his sentencing, Shahzad defiantly told the court he tried to wage war against America because he believed the country was at war with Islam.

Meanwhile, a series of plots by homegrown radical Islamists were prevented only because of pro-active sting operations initiated by the FBI.

To close out this posting for 2 May, Jihadists around the world are making threats to avenge Bin Laden:

Jihadists in the Philippines have declared Bin Laden a martyr:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/05/02/11/moro-rebels-call-bin-laden-martyr

Hamas has condemned the killing of Bin Laden:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/02/hamas-leader-condemns-killing-usama-bin-laden/

The Taliban have vowed to avenge Bin Laden’s death:

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/05/osama-how-he-died/

Less well-known Jihadis have chimed in on Bin Laden’s death too:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/02/us-binladen-militants-idUSTRE74147320110502